🔗 Share this article Day-to-Day Murders in Mexico Decline Over a Third During President Sheinbaum, Per Government Data The mean count of daily murders each month in Mexico has fallen by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to recent official figures. However, security analysts have warned that murder numbers may not indicate enhanced national safety. Notable Drop in Daily Figures Officials reported an average of almost 55 killings a day in last November as opposed to almost 87 when Sheinbaum took the leadership in September. This data was delivered by the chief of the nation's federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday. “The figures in killings that we have seen over these months is very important,” Sheinbaum said, explaining that last month the lowest figure of homicides were registered for any single November in the last 10 years. Recent Context and Official Strategy Violent cartel infighting, coupled with the government’s heavily militarised campaigns to take on the cartels, have led to Mexico’s murder rate escalate in recent times. The figure peaked at a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the nation's national statistics agency. That resulted in Mexico a murder figure over four times greater than that of the United States. Since then, killings have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has linked her public safety approach for an ostensibly steeper reduction in killings in the current year. At a press conference in August, the President stated: “We have a strategy, there is tracking of the plan, and we have specific tracking municipality by municipality in some cases. The strategy functions. And we have to persist at it every day.” The key pillars of Sheinbaum’s security plan encompass: Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force. Enhancing information gathering and investigation efforts. Increased collaboration between government departments. Expert Skepticism and Statistical Limitations Nevertheless, public safety researchers warned that using homicide statistics to assess the situation of pacification was misleading. This is particularly true considering the uptick in different crimes such as abductions. “That would be very good news if this were a drop, but I think we must not just look at the murder numbers and conclude: ‘Alright, excellent,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be guardedly positive.” As reported by the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total dropped by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year relative to the identical period the previous year. But, disappearances have risen by 15% and in some regions have risen by up to 200%. “Data on homicides is no longer useful for gauging the reality of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the ability or the will to correctly identify and categorize bodies. Second, organized [criminals] … have the means to mask violence through abductions.” Vargas pointed out that using monthly means of daily killings was additionally concerning because it might obscure days when there were especially elevated numbers of murders. “Relying on the daily average renders high peaks of violence unseen,” he concluded. Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Success An area where the government can highlight the success of its security strategy is on detentions and seizures. Close to 40,000 people were detained between last October and this past November for serious offenses, according to government figures. More than 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tons of narcotics intercepted. “Donald Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s extremely politically beneficial,” said Vargas. Ongoing Violence and Public Anger However notwithstanding these efforts, Mexico continues to be beset by severe violence, with a number of states in the grip of cartel-related conflict. In the previous month there was a prominent killing of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors killed in the last 12 months. A short time later, thousands of young people demonstrated in Mexico City and throughout the country to show their outrage at graft and drug violence. “The administration shares [data] in a way to construct a picture of improvement. Politically it’s highly potent, from a social perspective it’s very debatable,” Vargas said.
The mean count of daily murders each month in Mexico has fallen by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to recent official figures. However, security analysts have warned that murder numbers may not indicate enhanced national safety. Notable Drop in Daily Figures Officials reported an average of almost 55 killings a day in last November as opposed to almost 87 when Sheinbaum took the leadership in September. This data was delivered by the chief of the nation's federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday. “The figures in killings that we have seen over these months is very important,” Sheinbaum said, explaining that last month the lowest figure of homicides were registered for any single November in the last 10 years. Recent Context and Official Strategy Violent cartel infighting, coupled with the government’s heavily militarised campaigns to take on the cartels, have led to Mexico’s murder rate escalate in recent times. The figure peaked at a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the nation's national statistics agency. That resulted in Mexico a murder figure over four times greater than that of the United States. Since then, killings have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has linked her public safety approach for an ostensibly steeper reduction in killings in the current year. At a press conference in August, the President stated: “We have a strategy, there is tracking of the plan, and we have specific tracking municipality by municipality in some cases. The strategy functions. And we have to persist at it every day.” The key pillars of Sheinbaum’s security plan encompass: Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force. Enhancing information gathering and investigation efforts. Increased collaboration between government departments. Expert Skepticism and Statistical Limitations Nevertheless, public safety researchers warned that using homicide statistics to assess the situation of pacification was misleading. This is particularly true considering the uptick in different crimes such as abductions. “That would be very good news if this were a drop, but I think we must not just look at the murder numbers and conclude: ‘Alright, excellent,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be guardedly positive.” As reported by the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total dropped by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year relative to the identical period the previous year. But, disappearances have risen by 15% and in some regions have risen by up to 200%. “Data on homicides is no longer useful for gauging the reality of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the ability or the will to correctly identify and categorize bodies. Second, organized [criminals] … have the means to mask violence through abductions.” Vargas pointed out that using monthly means of daily killings was additionally concerning because it might obscure days when there were especially elevated numbers of murders. “Relying on the daily average renders high peaks of violence unseen,” he concluded. Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Success An area where the government can highlight the success of its security strategy is on detentions and seizures. Close to 40,000 people were detained between last October and this past November for serious offenses, according to government figures. More than 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tons of narcotics intercepted. “Donald Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s extremely politically beneficial,” said Vargas. Ongoing Violence and Public Anger However notwithstanding these efforts, Mexico continues to be beset by severe violence, with a number of states in the grip of cartel-related conflict. In the previous month there was a prominent killing of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors killed in the last 12 months. A short time later, thousands of young people demonstrated in Mexico City and throughout the country to show their outrage at graft and drug violence. “The administration shares [data] in a way to construct a picture of improvement. Politically it’s highly potent, from a social perspective it’s very debatable,” Vargas said.