🔗 Share this article From Grudging Respect to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Venezuela's Leader. A surprise raid on the capital under cover of darkness, ending with the seizure of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the intervening power declares its plan to rule for an indefinite period. That was the scenario Vladimir Putin envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York. Official Outrage and Private Thoughts Officially, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of international law and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a coup that Russia once imagined, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition. “The mission was executed with precision,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was meant to unfold: swift, dramatic and decisive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general planned to be engaged in combat for four years.” Such commentary have fueled a mood of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody war. Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how brazen the US intervention appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she wrote. Allies in Decline For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – hoping to forging a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington. Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for the Caracas government just in late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue. Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other important partners lose influence or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's reach. “For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and the two leaders have long-term relations, leaving Moscow with little choice but to express outrage. But offering any real assistance to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.” The Ukraine Priority Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with Trump on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas. “The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added. Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems. This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025. Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered. A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income. “If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.” A Dark Optimism Yet, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more openly power-based world order – one where power, rather than law, determines results. “The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than international law.”
A surprise raid on the capital under cover of darkness, ending with the seizure of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the intervening power declares its plan to rule for an indefinite period. That was the scenario Vladimir Putin envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York. Official Outrage and Private Thoughts Officially, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of international law and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a coup that Russia once imagined, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition. “The mission was executed with precision,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was meant to unfold: swift, dramatic and decisive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general planned to be engaged in combat for four years.” Such commentary have fueled a mood of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody war. Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how brazen the US intervention appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she wrote. Allies in Decline For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – hoping to forging a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington. Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for the Caracas government just in late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue. Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other important partners lose influence or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's reach. “For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and the two leaders have long-term relations, leaving Moscow with little choice but to express outrage. But offering any real assistance to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.” The Ukraine Priority Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with Trump on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas. “The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added. Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems. This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025. Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered. A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income. “If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.” A Dark Optimism Yet, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more openly power-based world order – one where power, rather than law, determines results. “The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than international law.”