A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
