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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to present the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy said that the American legislature is expected to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five documents. Some of them pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. does not intend to place boots on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring safer seas, including through operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would constitute guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the type of package under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not received the details of the proposals on security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. One proposal centers on Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russia would not move forward, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security formations instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a special economic area could be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face exactly what we are encountering on our flight right now – instability,” commented the president, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the Americans,” he concluded.